Junaid Saeed Uppal
2c7cd67ab7
- Fix streak signal: was giving 100% to streak chair after normalization (non-streak chairs were 0), now properly distributes probability with streak chair getting less as streak grows (actual mean reversion) - Change recent window from 20 to 50 games - Reweight signals based on backtest: base_rate 0.15→0.20 (best performer), recent 0.10→0.15, streak 0.10→0.05, balance 0.15→0.10 - Move Live Market Sentiment above Signal Breakdown
1616 lines
56 KiB
Python
1616 lines
56 KiB
Python
"""
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||
ClickHouse database operations.
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||
"""
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||
|
||
import json
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||
import logging
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||
import math
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||
import threading
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||
import time
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||
import clickhouse_connect
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||
from . import config
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||
|
||
log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
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||
|
||
_client = None
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||
_lock = threading.Lock()
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||
_migrations_applied = False
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||
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||
|
||
def get_client():
|
||
global _client
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||
if _client is None:
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||
for attempt in range(30):
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try:
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_client = clickhouse_connect.get_client(
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host=config.CLICKHOUSE_HOST,
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port=config.CLICKHOUSE_PORT,
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||
)
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_client.ping()
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log.info("Connected to ClickHouse at %s:%s", config.CLICKHOUSE_HOST, config.CLICKHOUSE_PORT)
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||
return _client
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||
except Exception as e:
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||
log.warning("ClickHouse not ready (attempt %d): %s", attempt + 1, e)
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||
time.sleep(2)
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||
raise RuntimeError("Could not connect to ClickHouse")
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||
return _client
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||
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||
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||
def run_migrations():
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||
"""Run one-time data migrations on startup."""
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||
global _migrations_applied
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if _migrations_applied:
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return
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client = get_client()
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||
client.command(
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||
"CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS _migrations ("
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||
" name String, applied_at DateTime DEFAULT now()"
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||
") ENGINE = MergeTree() ORDER BY name"
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||
)
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||
result = client.query(
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||
"SELECT count() FROM _migrations WHERE name = 'swap_ac_chairs'"
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||
)
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||
if result.result_rows[0][0] == 0:
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log.info("Running migration: swap_ac_chairs")
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client.command(
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||
"ALTER TABLE games UPDATE "
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||
"hand_a = hand_c, hand_c = hand_a, "
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||
"bet_a = bet_c, bet_c = bet_a, "
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||
"hand_type_a = hand_type_c, hand_type_c = hand_type_a "
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||
"WHERE 1=1"
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||
)
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client.insert("_migrations", [["swap_ac_chairs"]], column_names=["name"])
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log.info("Migration swap_ac_chairs applied")
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# Ensure visitors table exists (for existing deployments)
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||
client.command(
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"CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS visitors ("
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||
" ip String, country String, path String, method String,"
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||
" user_agent String, referer String, accept_lang String,"
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||
" created_at DateTime DEFAULT now()"
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||
") ENGINE = MergeTree() ORDER BY (created_at, ip)"
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||
" TTL created_at + INTERVAL 90 DAY"
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||
)
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||
_migrations_applied = True
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||
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||
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||
def _with_lock(fn):
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||
"""Decorator to serialize all ClickHouse operations."""
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||
def wrapper(*args, **kwargs):
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||
with _lock:
|
||
return fn(*args, **kwargs)
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||
wrapper.__name__ = fn.__name__
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||
return wrapper
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||
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||
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||
@_with_lock
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def insert_game(game: dict):
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||
"""Insert a completed round into the games table."""
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client = get_client()
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client.insert("games",
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[[
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game["game_no"],
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game["winner"],
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game["total_pot"],
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game.get("bet_a", 0),
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game.get("bet_b", 0),
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||
game.get("bet_c", 0),
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||
game.get("hand_a", ""),
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||
game.get("hand_b", ""),
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||
game.get("hand_c", ""),
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||
game.get("hand_type_a", 0),
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||
game.get("hand_type_b", 0),
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game.get("hand_type_c", 0),
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game.get("cards_json", ""),
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game.get("duration_s", 0),
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||
]],
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||
column_names=[
|
||
"game_no", "winner", "total_pot",
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||
"bet_a", "bet_b", "bet_c",
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||
"hand_a", "hand_b", "hand_c",
|
||
"hand_type_a", "hand_type_b", "hand_type_c",
|
||
"cards_json", "duration_s",
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||
],
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||
)
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||
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||
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||
@_with_lock
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def insert_bet(bet: dict):
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||
"""Insert an individual user bet into the bets table."""
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||
client = get_client()
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client.insert("bets",
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[[
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bet["game_no"],
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bet["user_id"],
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bet["chair"],
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bet["bet_amount"],
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bet["total_bet"],
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]],
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column_names=["game_no", "user_id", "chair", "bet_amount", "total_bet"],
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||
)
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||
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||
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||
@_with_lock
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||
def upsert_user(user: dict):
|
||
"""Insert/update a user profile."""
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client = get_client()
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client.insert("users",
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[[
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user["user_id"],
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user.get("nick_name", ""),
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user.get("rich_level", 0),
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user.get("actor_level", 0),
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user.get("gender", 0),
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user.get("consume_total", 0),
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user.get("earn_total", 0),
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user.get("is_actor", 0),
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user.get("portrait", ""),
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]],
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||
column_names=[
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||
"user_id", "nick_name", "rich_level", "actor_level",
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"gender", "consume_total", "earn_total", "is_actor", "portrait",
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||
],
|
||
)
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||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def insert_visitors(batch: list[dict]):
|
||
"""Bulk insert visitor records."""
|
||
if not batch:
|
||
return
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||
client = get_client()
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||
rows = [
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||
[
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||
v.get("ip", ""),
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||
v.get("country", ""),
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||
v.get("path", ""),
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||
v.get("method", ""),
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||
v.get("user_agent", ""),
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||
v.get("referer", ""),
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v.get("accept_lang", ""),
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]
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for v in batch
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]
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client.insert(
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"visitors",
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rows,
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column_names=["ip", "country", "path", "method", "user_agent", "referer", "accept_lang"],
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)
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@_with_lock
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def get_recent_visitors(limit: int = 200) -> list[dict]:
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||
"""Get recent visitor log entries."""
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||
client = get_client()
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result = client.query(
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"SELECT ip, country, path, method, user_agent, referer, accept_lang, created_at "
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"FROM visitors ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT {limit:UInt32}",
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||
parameters={"limit": limit},
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)
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||
visitors = []
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||
for row in result.result_rows:
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visitors.append({
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"ip": row[0],
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"country": row[1],
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"path": row[2],
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"method": row[3],
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"user_agent": row[4],
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"referer": row[5],
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"accept_lang": row[6],
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"created_at": str(row[7]),
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})
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return visitors
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||
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||
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||
@_with_lock
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||
def get_recent_games(n: int = 50) -> list[dict]:
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||
"""Get last N completed games."""
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||
client = get_client()
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result = client.query(
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||
"SELECT game_no, winner, total_pot, bet_a, bet_b, bet_c, "
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"hand_a, hand_b, hand_c, hand_type_a, hand_type_b, hand_type_c, "
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||
"cards_json, duration_s, created_at "
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||
"FROM games ORDER BY game_no DESC LIMIT {n:UInt32}",
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||
parameters={"n": n},
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||
)
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||
games = []
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for row in result.result_rows:
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games.append({
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"game_no": row[0],
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"winner": row[1],
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"total_pot": row[2],
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"bet_a": row[3],
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"bet_b": row[4],
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"bet_c": row[5],
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"hand_a": row[6],
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||
"hand_b": row[7],
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||
"hand_c": row[8],
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||
"hand_type_a": row[9],
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||
"hand_type_b": row[10],
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||
"hand_type_c": row[11],
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||
"cards_json": row[12],
|
||
"duration_s": row[13],
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||
"created_at": str(row[14]),
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||
})
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||
return games
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||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_leaderboard(n: int = 10) -> list[dict]:
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"""
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Get top N users by P&L.
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P&L = sum of winning bets * 1.9 - sum of losing bets.
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With 2.9x fixed payout: win → +1.9x bet, loss → -1.0x bet.
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"""
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client = get_client()
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result = client.query(
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"""
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SELECT
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b.user_id,
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any(u.nick_name) AS nick_name,
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count() AS total_bets,
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countIf(b.chair = g.winner) AS wins,
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countIf(b.chair != g.winner) AS losses,
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toInt64(sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair = g.winner) * 1.9
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- sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair != g.winner)) AS pnl,
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sum(b.bet_amount) AS total_wagered
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||
FROM bets b
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||
JOIN games g ON b.game_no = g.game_no
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LEFT JOIN users u ON b.user_id = u.user_id
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GROUP BY b.user_id
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HAVING total_bets >= 3
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ORDER BY pnl DESC
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LIMIT {n:UInt32}
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""",
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parameters={"n": n},
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)
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leaders = []
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for row in result.result_rows:
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leaders.append({
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"user_id": row[0],
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"nick_name": row[1] or str(row[0]),
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"total_bets": row[2],
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"wins": row[3],
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"losses": row[4],
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"pnl": row[5],
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"total_wagered": row[6],
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})
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return leaders
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||
|
||
@_with_lock
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||
def get_win_distribution() -> dict:
|
||
"""Get win counts per chair + bet rank distribution."""
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client = get_client()
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result = client.query(
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"SELECT winner, count() AS cnt FROM games GROUP BY winner ORDER BY winner"
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)
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dist = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0}
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for row in result.result_rows:
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chair = config.CHAIRS.get(row[0], "?")
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if chair in dist:
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dist[chair] = row[1]
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# Bet rank distribution: how often the winning chair had high/mid/low bet
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rank_result = client.query(
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"""
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||
SELECT
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countIf(winner_bet >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS high,
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countIf(winner_bet > least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)
|
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AND winner_bet < greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS mid,
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countIf(winner_bet <= least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS low
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||
FROM (
|
||
SELECT
|
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bet_a, bet_b, bet_c,
|
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multiIf(winner = 3, bet_a, winner = 2, bet_b, bet_c) AS winner_bet
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FROM games
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WHERE bet_a + bet_b + bet_c > 0
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)
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"""
|
||
)
|
||
bet_rank = {"high": 0, "mid": 0, "low": 0}
|
||
if rank_result.result_rows:
|
||
row = rank_result.result_rows[0]
|
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bet_rank = {"high": row[0], "mid": row[1], "low": row[2]}
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||
|
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return {"chairs": dist, "bet_rank": bet_rank}
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_user_name(user_id: int) -> str | None:
|
||
"""Lookup user nickname from cache."""
|
||
client = get_client()
|
||
result = client.query(
|
||
"SELECT nick_name FROM users WHERE user_id = {uid:UInt64} LIMIT 1",
|
||
parameters={"uid": user_id},
|
||
)
|
||
if result.result_rows:
|
||
return result.result_rows[0][0] or None
|
||
return None
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_user_detail(user_id: int) -> dict | None:
|
||
"""Get full user profile + session betting stats."""
|
||
client = get_client()
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||
# Profile
|
||
result = client.query(
|
||
"SELECT user_id, nick_name, rich_level, actor_level, gender, "
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"consume_total, earn_total, is_actor, portrait "
|
||
"FROM users WHERE user_id = {uid:UInt64} LIMIT 1",
|
||
parameters={"uid": user_id},
|
||
)
|
||
if not result.result_rows:
|
||
return None
|
||
row = result.result_rows[0]
|
||
profile = {
|
||
"user_id": row[0],
|
||
"nick_name": row[1],
|
||
"rich_level": row[2],
|
||
"actor_level": row[3],
|
||
"gender": row[4],
|
||
"consume_total": row[5],
|
||
"earn_total": row[6],
|
||
"is_actor": row[7],
|
||
"portrait": row[8],
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
# Session betting stats
|
||
stats_result = client.query(
|
||
"""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
count() AS total_bets,
|
||
sum(b.bet_amount) AS total_wagered,
|
||
countDistinct(b.game_no) AS rounds_played,
|
||
countIf(b.chair = g.winner) AS wins,
|
||
countIf(b.chair != g.winner) AS losses,
|
||
toInt64(sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair = g.winner) * 1.9
|
||
- sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair != g.winner)) AS pnl
|
||
FROM bets b
|
||
LEFT JOIN games g ON b.game_no = g.game_no
|
||
WHERE b.user_id = {uid:UInt64}
|
||
""",
|
||
parameters={"uid": user_id},
|
||
)
|
||
if stats_result.result_rows:
|
||
sr = stats_result.result_rows[0]
|
||
profile["total_bets"] = sr[0]
|
||
profile["total_wagered"] = sr[1]
|
||
profile["rounds_played"] = sr[2]
|
||
profile["wins"] = sr[3]
|
||
profile["losses"] = sr[4]
|
||
profile["pnl"] = sr[5]
|
||
|
||
# Recent bets
|
||
bets_result = client.query(
|
||
"""
|
||
SELECT b.game_no, b.chair, b.bet_amount, b.total_bet,
|
||
g.winner, b.created_at
|
||
FROM bets b
|
||
LEFT JOIN games g ON b.game_no = g.game_no
|
||
WHERE b.user_id = {uid:UInt64}
|
||
ORDER BY b.created_at DESC
|
||
LIMIT 20
|
||
""",
|
||
parameters={"uid": user_id},
|
||
)
|
||
profile["recent_bets"] = []
|
||
for br in bets_result.result_rows:
|
||
profile["recent_bets"].append({
|
||
"game_no": br[0],
|
||
"chair": br[1],
|
||
"chair_name": config.CHAIRS.get(br[1], "?"),
|
||
"bet_amount": br[2],
|
||
"total_bet": br[3],
|
||
"winner": br[4],
|
||
"won": br[1] == br[4] if br[4] else None,
|
||
"created_at": str(br[5]),
|
||
})
|
||
|
||
return profile
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_biggest_winner() -> dict | None:
|
||
"""Get the single biggest winner by P&L this session."""
|
||
client = get_client()
|
||
result = client.query(
|
||
"""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
b.user_id,
|
||
any(u.nick_name) AS nick_name,
|
||
any(u.portrait) AS portrait,
|
||
any(u.rich_level) AS rich_level,
|
||
count() AS total_bets,
|
||
countIf(b.chair = g.winner) AS wins,
|
||
toInt64(sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair = g.winner) * 1.9
|
||
- sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair != g.winner)) AS pnl,
|
||
sum(b.bet_amount) AS total_wagered
|
||
FROM bets b
|
||
JOIN games g ON b.game_no = g.game_no
|
||
LEFT JOIN users u ON b.user_id = u.user_id
|
||
GROUP BY b.user_id
|
||
HAVING total_bets >= 3
|
||
ORDER BY pnl DESC
|
||
LIMIT 1
|
||
"""
|
||
)
|
||
if result.result_rows:
|
||
row = result.result_rows[0]
|
||
return {
|
||
"user_id": row[0],
|
||
"nick_name": row[1] or str(row[0]),
|
||
"portrait": row[2] or "",
|
||
"rich_level": row[3],
|
||
"total_bets": row[4],
|
||
"wins": row[5],
|
||
"pnl": row[6],
|
||
"total_wagered": row[7],
|
||
}
|
||
return None
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_analytics(period: str = "all") -> dict:
|
||
"""Get all analytics data for a given time period."""
|
||
client = get_client()
|
||
|
||
intervals = {
|
||
"1h": "now() - INTERVAL 1 HOUR",
|
||
"6h": "now() - INTERVAL 6 HOUR",
|
||
"24h": "now() - INTERVAL 24 HOUR",
|
||
"7d": "now() - INTERVAL 7 DAY",
|
||
}
|
||
cutoff_expr = intervals.get(period)
|
||
game_where = f"WHERE created_at >= {cutoff_expr}" if cutoff_expr else ""
|
||
bet_where = f"WHERE b.created_at >= {cutoff_expr}" if cutoff_expr else ""
|
||
|
||
# 1. Summary stats
|
||
summary_result = client.query(
|
||
f"SELECT count(), sum(total_pot), toInt64(avg(total_pot)) FROM games {game_where}"
|
||
)
|
||
sr = summary_result.result_rows[0] if summary_result.result_rows else (0, 0, 0)
|
||
# Bet counts
|
||
bet_summary = client.query(
|
||
f"SELECT count(), countDistinct(user_id) FROM bets {'WHERE created_at >= ' + cutoff_expr if cutoff_expr else ''}"
|
||
)
|
||
bs = bet_summary.result_rows[0] if bet_summary.result_rows else (0, 0)
|
||
summary = {
|
||
"total_games": sr[0],
|
||
"total_volume": int(sr[1] or 0),
|
||
"avg_pot": int(sr[2] or 0),
|
||
"total_bets_placed": bs[0],
|
||
"unique_bettors": bs[1],
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
# 2. Win distribution (chairs + bet rank)
|
||
dist_result = client.query(
|
||
f"SELECT winner, count() AS cnt FROM games {game_where} GROUP BY winner ORDER BY winner"
|
||
)
|
||
chairs_dist = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0}
|
||
for row in dist_result.result_rows:
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(row[0], "?")
|
||
if chair in chairs_dist:
|
||
chairs_dist[chair] = row[1]
|
||
|
||
rank_result = client.query(
|
||
f"""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
countIf(winner_bet >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS high,
|
||
countIf(winner_bet > least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)
|
||
AND winner_bet < greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS mid,
|
||
countIf(winner_bet <= least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS low
|
||
FROM (
|
||
SELECT
|
||
bet_a, bet_b, bet_c,
|
||
multiIf(winner = 3, bet_a, winner = 2, bet_b, bet_c) AS winner_bet
|
||
FROM games
|
||
{game_where + ' AND' if game_where else 'WHERE'} bet_a + bet_b + bet_c > 0
|
||
)
|
||
"""
|
||
)
|
||
bet_rank = {"high": 0, "mid": 0, "low": 0}
|
||
if rank_result.result_rows:
|
||
rr = rank_result.result_rows[0]
|
||
bet_rank = {"high": rr[0], "mid": rr[1], "low": rr[2]}
|
||
|
||
win_distribution = {"chairs": chairs_dist, "bet_rank": bet_rank}
|
||
|
||
# 3. Hand type distribution (winning hand types)
|
||
hand_type_result = client.query(
|
||
f"""
|
||
SELECT hand_type, count() AS cnt FROM (
|
||
SELECT multiIf(winner = 3, hand_type_a, winner = 2, hand_type_b, hand_type_c) AS hand_type
|
||
FROM games
|
||
{game_where}
|
||
)
|
||
WHERE hand_type > 0
|
||
GROUP BY hand_type
|
||
ORDER BY hand_type
|
||
"""
|
||
)
|
||
hand_type_distribution = {}
|
||
for row in hand_type_result.result_rows:
|
||
type_name = config.HAND_TYPES.get(row[0], f"Type {row[0]}")
|
||
hand_type_distribution[type_name] = row[1]
|
||
|
||
# 4. Leaderboard
|
||
leaderboard_result = client.query(
|
||
f"""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
b.user_id,
|
||
any(u.nick_name) AS nick_name,
|
||
count() AS total_bets,
|
||
countIf(b.chair = g.winner) AS wins,
|
||
countIf(b.chair != g.winner) AS losses,
|
||
toInt64(sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair = g.winner) * 1.9
|
||
- sumIf(b.bet_amount, b.chair != g.winner)) AS pnl,
|
||
sum(b.bet_amount) AS total_wagered
|
||
FROM bets b
|
||
JOIN games g ON b.game_no = g.game_no
|
||
LEFT JOIN users u ON b.user_id = u.user_id
|
||
{bet_where}
|
||
GROUP BY b.user_id
|
||
HAVING total_bets >= 3
|
||
ORDER BY pnl DESC
|
||
LIMIT 20
|
||
"""
|
||
)
|
||
leaderboard = []
|
||
for row in leaderboard_result.result_rows:
|
||
leaderboard.append({
|
||
"user_id": row[0],
|
||
"nick_name": row[1] or str(row[0]),
|
||
"total_bets": row[2],
|
||
"wins": row[3],
|
||
"losses": row[4],
|
||
"pnl": row[5],
|
||
"total_wagered": row[6],
|
||
})
|
||
|
||
# 5. Hourly volume
|
||
hourly_result = client.query(
|
||
f"""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
toStartOfHour(created_at) AS hour,
|
||
count() AS games,
|
||
sum(total_pot) AS volume
|
||
FROM games
|
||
{game_where}
|
||
GROUP BY hour
|
||
ORDER BY hour
|
||
"""
|
||
)
|
||
hourly_volume = []
|
||
for row in hourly_result.result_rows:
|
||
hourly_volume.append({
|
||
"hour": str(row[0]),
|
||
"games": row[1],
|
||
"volume": int(row[2] or 0),
|
||
})
|
||
|
||
# 6. Games list
|
||
games_result = client.query(
|
||
f"""
|
||
SELECT game_no, winner, total_pot, bet_a, bet_b, bet_c,
|
||
hand_a, hand_b, hand_c, hand_type_a, hand_type_b, hand_type_c,
|
||
cards_json, duration_s, created_at
|
||
FROM games
|
||
{game_where}
|
||
ORDER BY game_no DESC
|
||
LIMIT 200
|
||
"""
|
||
)
|
||
games = []
|
||
for row in games_result.result_rows:
|
||
games.append({
|
||
"game_no": row[0],
|
||
"winner": row[1],
|
||
"total_pot": row[2],
|
||
"bet_a": row[3],
|
||
"bet_b": row[4],
|
||
"bet_c": row[5],
|
||
"hand_a": row[6],
|
||
"hand_b": row[7],
|
||
"hand_c": row[8],
|
||
"hand_type_a": row[9],
|
||
"hand_type_b": row[10],
|
||
"hand_type_c": row[11],
|
||
"cards_json": row[12],
|
||
"duration_s": row[13],
|
||
"created_at": str(row[14]),
|
||
})
|
||
|
||
return {
|
||
"summary": summary,
|
||
"win_distribution": win_distribution,
|
||
"hand_type_distribution": hand_type_distribution,
|
||
"leaderboard": leaderboard,
|
||
"hourly_volume": hourly_volume,
|
||
"games": games,
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_pattern_analysis() -> dict:
|
||
"""Run all pattern analysis queries and return a single dict."""
|
||
client = get_client()
|
||
|
||
# 1. Chair win bias
|
||
result = client.query(
|
||
"SELECT winner, count() AS cnt FROM games GROUP BY winner ORDER BY winner"
|
||
)
|
||
chair_wins = {}
|
||
total_games = 0
|
||
for row in result.result_rows:
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(row[0], "?")
|
||
chair_wins[chair] = row[1]
|
||
total_games += row[1]
|
||
chair_bias = {"total_games": total_games}
|
||
for ch in ("A", "B", "C"):
|
||
wins = chair_wins.get(ch, 0)
|
||
pct = round(wins / total_games * 100, 2) if total_games else 0
|
||
chair_bias[ch] = {"wins": wins, "pct": pct}
|
||
|
||
# 2. Bet rank analysis — how often the highest/mid/lowest bet chair wins
|
||
rank_result = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
countIf(winner_bet >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS high,
|
||
countIf(winner_bet > least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)
|
||
AND winner_bet < greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS mid,
|
||
countIf(winner_bet <= least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS low
|
||
FROM (
|
||
SELECT bet_a, bet_b, bet_c,
|
||
multiIf(winner = 3, bet_a, winner = 2, bet_b, bet_c) AS winner_bet
|
||
FROM games WHERE bet_a + bet_b + bet_c > 0
|
||
)
|
||
""")
|
||
bet_rank = {"high": 0, "mid": 0, "low": 0}
|
||
if rank_result.result_rows:
|
||
r = rank_result.result_rows[0]
|
||
bet_rank = {"high": r[0], "mid": r[1], "low": r[2]}
|
||
|
||
# 3. Per-chair bet rank — when chair X has max bet, how often does X win?
|
||
pcr = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
countIf(bet_a >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c) AND bet_a > 0) AS a_high,
|
||
countIf(bet_a >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c) AND bet_a > 0 AND winner = 3) AS a_win,
|
||
countIf(bet_b >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c) AND bet_b > 0) AS b_high,
|
||
countIf(bet_b >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c) AND bet_b > 0 AND winner = 2) AS b_win,
|
||
countIf(bet_c >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c) AND bet_c > 0) AS c_high,
|
||
countIf(bet_c >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c) AND bet_c > 0 AND winner = 1) AS c_win
|
||
FROM games WHERE bet_a + bet_b + bet_c > 0
|
||
""")
|
||
per_chair_rank = {}
|
||
if pcr.result_rows:
|
||
r = pcr.result_rows[0]
|
||
for i, ch in enumerate(("A", "B", "C")):
|
||
has = r[i * 2]
|
||
wins = r[i * 2 + 1]
|
||
per_chair_rank[ch] = {
|
||
"has_highest": has, "wins": wins,
|
||
"win_pct": round(wins / has * 100, 2) if has else 0,
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
# 4. Hand type distribution by chair (all dealt hands, not just winners)
|
||
ht_result = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT 'A' AS chair, hand_type_a AS ht, count() AS cnt
|
||
FROM games WHERE hand_type_a > 0 GROUP BY ht
|
||
UNION ALL
|
||
SELECT 'B', hand_type_b, count()
|
||
FROM games WHERE hand_type_b > 0 GROUP BY hand_type_b
|
||
UNION ALL
|
||
SELECT 'C', hand_type_c, count()
|
||
FROM games WHERE hand_type_c > 0 GROUP BY hand_type_c
|
||
ORDER BY 1, 2
|
||
""")
|
||
hand_types_by_chair = {"A": {}, "B": {}, "C": {}}
|
||
for row in ht_result.result_rows:
|
||
ch = row[0]
|
||
type_name = config.HAND_TYPES.get(row[1], f"Type {row[1]}")
|
||
hand_types_by_chair[ch][type_name] = row[2]
|
||
|
||
# 5. Hand type win rates (winning hand type distribution)
|
||
htw = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT hand_type, count() AS cnt FROM (
|
||
SELECT multiIf(winner = 3, hand_type_a, winner = 2, hand_type_b, hand_type_c) AS hand_type
|
||
FROM games
|
||
) WHERE hand_type > 0
|
||
GROUP BY hand_type ORDER BY hand_type
|
||
""")
|
||
hand_type_wins = {}
|
||
for row in htw.result_rows:
|
||
type_name = config.HAND_TYPES.get(row[0], f"Type {row[0]}")
|
||
hand_type_wins[type_name] = row[1]
|
||
|
||
# 6. Pot size buckets — win rates by pot quartile
|
||
qr = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
quantile(0.25)(total_pot) AS q1,
|
||
quantile(0.5)(total_pot) AS q2,
|
||
quantile(0.75)(total_pot) AS q3
|
||
FROM games
|
||
""")
|
||
pot_buckets = {}
|
||
if qr.result_rows:
|
||
q1, q2, q3 = int(qr.result_rows[0][0]), int(qr.result_rows[0][1]), int(qr.result_rows[0][2])
|
||
br = client.query(f"""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
multiIf(
|
||
total_pot <= {q1}, 'small',
|
||
total_pot <= {q2}, 'medium',
|
||
total_pot <= {q3}, 'large',
|
||
'whale'
|
||
) AS bucket,
|
||
winner, count() AS cnt
|
||
FROM games GROUP BY bucket, winner
|
||
""")
|
||
for row in br.result_rows:
|
||
bucket, chair_id, cnt = row[0], row[1], row[2]
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(chair_id, "?")
|
||
if bucket not in pot_buckets:
|
||
pot_buckets[bucket] = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0, "total": 0}
|
||
pot_buckets[bucket][chair] = cnt
|
||
pot_buckets[bucket]["total"] += cnt
|
||
pot_buckets["_ranges"] = {
|
||
"small": f"0–{q1}", "medium": f"{q1+1}–{q2}",
|
||
"large": f"{q2+1}–{q3}", "whale": f">{q3}",
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
# 7. Streak analysis — compute in Python from ordered winners
|
||
streak_result = client.query(
|
||
"SELECT winner FROM games ORDER BY game_no ASC"
|
||
)
|
||
winners_list = [config.CHAIRS.get(r[0], "?") for r in streak_result.result_rows]
|
||
streaks = {}
|
||
for ch in ("A", "B", "C"):
|
||
max_s = cur = 0
|
||
for w in winners_list:
|
||
if w == ch:
|
||
cur += 1
|
||
max_s = max(max_s, cur)
|
||
else:
|
||
cur = 0
|
||
# current streak from the end
|
||
current = 0
|
||
for w in reversed(winners_list):
|
||
if w == ch:
|
||
current += 1
|
||
else:
|
||
break
|
||
streaks[ch] = {"max_streak": max_s, "current_streak": current}
|
||
|
||
# 8. Hourly patterns — win rates by hour of day
|
||
hr_result = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT toHour(created_at) AS hr, winner, count() AS cnt
|
||
FROM games GROUP BY hr, winner ORDER BY hr, winner
|
||
""")
|
||
hourly = {}
|
||
for row in hr_result.result_rows:
|
||
h = str(row[0])
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(row[1], "?")
|
||
if h not in hourly:
|
||
hourly[h] = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0, "total": 0}
|
||
hourly[h][chair] = row[2]
|
||
hourly[h]["total"] += row[2]
|
||
|
||
# 9. Recent (last 100) vs overall
|
||
recent = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT winner, count() AS cnt FROM (
|
||
SELECT winner FROM games ORDER BY game_no DESC LIMIT 100
|
||
) GROUP BY winner
|
||
""")
|
||
recent_dist = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0}
|
||
recent_total = 0
|
||
for row in recent.result_rows:
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(row[0], "?")
|
||
if chair in recent_dist:
|
||
recent_dist[chair] = row[1]
|
||
recent_total += row[1]
|
||
|
||
return {
|
||
"chair_bias": chair_bias,
|
||
"bet_rank": bet_rank,
|
||
"per_chair_rank": per_chair_rank,
|
||
"hand_types_by_chair": hand_types_by_chair,
|
||
"hand_type_wins": hand_type_wins,
|
||
"pot_buckets": pot_buckets,
|
||
"streaks": streaks,
|
||
"hourly": hourly,
|
||
"recent_vs_all": {
|
||
"recent": {"dist": recent_dist, "total": recent_total},
|
||
"all": {
|
||
"dist": {ch: chair_bias[ch]["wins"] for ch in ("A", "B", "C")},
|
||
"total": total_games,
|
||
},
|
||
},
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_hot_cold_players(n: int = 5) -> dict:
|
||
"""
|
||
Get players with highest and lowest P&L over their last 10 bets.
|
||
Returns {"hot": [...], "cold": [...]}.
|
||
"""
|
||
client = get_client()
|
||
sql = """
|
||
WITH ranked AS (
|
||
SELECT
|
||
b.user_id,
|
||
b.game_no,
|
||
b.chair,
|
||
b.bet_amount,
|
||
g.winner,
|
||
row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY b.user_id ORDER BY b.created_at DESC) AS rn
|
||
FROM bets b
|
||
JOIN games g ON b.game_no = g.game_no
|
||
),
|
||
last10 AS (
|
||
SELECT * FROM ranked WHERE rn <= 10
|
||
)
|
||
SELECT
|
||
l.user_id,
|
||
any(u.nick_name) AS nick_name,
|
||
count() AS total_bets,
|
||
countIf(l.chair = l.winner) AS wins,
|
||
toInt64(sumIf(l.bet_amount, l.chair = l.winner) * 1.9
|
||
- sumIf(l.bet_amount, l.chair != l.winner)) AS pnl
|
||
FROM last10 l
|
||
LEFT JOIN users u ON l.user_id = u.user_id
|
||
GROUP BY l.user_id
|
||
HAVING total_bets >= 5
|
||
ORDER BY pnl DESC
|
||
"""
|
||
result = client.query(sql)
|
||
all_players = []
|
||
for row in result.result_rows:
|
||
all_players.append({
|
||
"user_id": row[0],
|
||
"nick_name": row[1] or str(row[0]),
|
||
"total_bets": row[2],
|
||
"wins": row[3],
|
||
"pnl": row[4],
|
||
})
|
||
hot = [p for p in all_players if p["pnl"] > 0][:n]
|
||
cold = [p for p in all_players if p["pnl"] < 0][-n:]
|
||
cold.reverse() # most negative first
|
||
return {"hot": hot, "cold": cold}
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||
# Prediction helpers (private, called inside the locked main function)
|
||
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||
|
||
CHAIR_LABELS = ("A", "B", "C")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _normal_cdf(x):
|
||
"""Abramowitz-Stegun approximation of the standard normal CDF."""
|
||
if x < -8:
|
||
return 0.0
|
||
if x > 8:
|
||
return 1.0
|
||
t = 1.0 / (1.0 + 0.2316419 * abs(x))
|
||
d = 0.3989422804014327 # 1/sqrt(2*pi)
|
||
p = d * math.exp(-x * x / 2.0) * (
|
||
t * (0.319381530 + t * (-0.356563782 + t * (1.781477937 + t * (-1.821255978 + t * 1.330274429))))
|
||
)
|
||
return 1.0 - p if x > 0 else p
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _markov_matrix_1(winners):
|
||
"""1st-order Markov transition matrix P(next | last)."""
|
||
counts = {a: {b: 0 for b in CHAIR_LABELS} for a in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for i in range(len(winners) - 1):
|
||
prev, cur = winners[i], winners[i + 1]
|
||
if prev in counts and cur in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
counts[prev][cur] += 1
|
||
matrix = {}
|
||
for src in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
total = sum(counts[src].values())
|
||
matrix[src] = {dst: round(counts[src][dst] / total, 4) if total else 0 for dst in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
return matrix, counts
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _markov_matrix_2(winners):
|
||
"""2nd-order Markov transition matrix P(next | last two)."""
|
||
counts = {}
|
||
for a in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
for b in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
key = f"{a}{b}"
|
||
counts[key] = {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for i in range(len(winners) - 2):
|
||
key = f"{winners[i]}{winners[i+1]}"
|
||
nxt = winners[i + 2]
|
||
if key in counts and nxt in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
counts[key][nxt] += 1
|
||
matrix = {}
|
||
for key in counts:
|
||
total = sum(counts[key].values())
|
||
matrix[key] = {dst: round(counts[key][dst] / total, 4) if total else 0 for dst in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
return matrix, counts
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _autocorrelation(winners, max_lag=5):
|
||
"""Pearson autocorrelation at lags 1..max_lag. Chairs encoded A=0,B=1,C=2."""
|
||
mapping = {"A": 0, "B": 1, "C": 2}
|
||
seq = [mapping.get(w, 0) for w in winners]
|
||
n = len(seq)
|
||
if n < max_lag + 2:
|
||
return [{"lag": i + 1, "r": 0, "significant": False} for i in range(max_lag)]
|
||
mean = sum(seq) / n
|
||
var = sum((x - mean) ** 2 for x in seq)
|
||
results = []
|
||
for lag in range(1, max_lag + 1):
|
||
if var == 0:
|
||
results.append({"lag": lag, "r": 0, "significant": False})
|
||
continue
|
||
cov = sum((seq[i] - mean) * (seq[i + lag] - mean) for i in range(n - lag))
|
||
r = round(cov / var, 4)
|
||
threshold = 1.96 / math.sqrt(n)
|
||
results.append({"lag": lag, "r": r, "significant": abs(r) > threshold})
|
||
return results
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _chi_squared_test(winners):
|
||
"""Chi-squared goodness-of-fit for uniform chair distribution (df=2)."""
|
||
n = len(winners)
|
||
if n == 0:
|
||
return {"chi2": 0, "p_value": 1, "significant": False, "counts": {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}}
|
||
observed = {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for w in winners:
|
||
if w in observed:
|
||
observed[w] += 1
|
||
expected = n / 3.0
|
||
chi2 = sum((observed[c] - expected) ** 2 / expected for c in CHAIR_LABELS)
|
||
p_value = math.exp(-chi2 / 2.0) # df=2 closed-form
|
||
return {
|
||
"chi2": round(chi2, 4),
|
||
"p_value": round(p_value, 6),
|
||
"significant": p_value < 0.05,
|
||
"counts": observed,
|
||
"expected": round(expected, 1),
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _runs_test(winners):
|
||
"""Wald-Wolfowitz runs test for randomness."""
|
||
if len(winners) < 10:
|
||
return {"runs": 0, "z_score": 0, "p_value": 1, "interpretation": "Not enough data"}
|
||
# Count runs (sequences of same chair)
|
||
runs = 1
|
||
for i in range(1, len(winners)):
|
||
if winners[i] != winners[i - 1]:
|
||
runs += 1
|
||
n = len(winners)
|
||
counts = {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for w in winners:
|
||
if w in counts:
|
||
counts[w] += 1
|
||
# Expected runs and variance for k categories
|
||
n_vals = [counts[c] for c in CHAIR_LABELS if counts[c] > 0]
|
||
sum_ni2 = sum(ni ** 2 for ni in n_vals)
|
||
expected_runs = 1 + (n * n - sum_ni2) / n
|
||
if n <= 1:
|
||
return {"runs": runs, "z_score": 0, "p_value": 1, "interpretation": "Not enough data"}
|
||
var_num = sum_ni2 * (sum_ni2 + n * n) - 2 * n * sum(ni ** 3 for ni in n_vals) - n ** 3
|
||
var_den = n * n * (n - 1)
|
||
variance = var_num / var_den if var_den > 0 else 1
|
||
if variance <= 0:
|
||
return {"runs": runs, "z_score": 0, "p_value": 1, "interpretation": "Not enough data"}
|
||
z = (runs - expected_runs) / math.sqrt(variance)
|
||
p_value = 2 * (1 - _normal_cdf(abs(z)))
|
||
if p_value < 0.05:
|
||
interpretation = "Too few runs (streaky)" if z < 0 else "Too many runs (alternating)"
|
||
else:
|
||
interpretation = "Random (no significant pattern)"
|
||
return {
|
||
"runs": runs,
|
||
"expected_runs": round(expected_runs, 1),
|
||
"z_score": round(z, 4),
|
||
"p_value": round(p_value, 6),
|
||
"significant": p_value < 0.05,
|
||
"interpretation": interpretation,
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _bayesian_prediction(winners, markov1, markov2):
|
||
"""Weighted Bayesian prediction combining 5 signals."""
|
||
if len(winners) < 3:
|
||
return {c: round(1 / 3, 4) for c in CHAIR_LABELS}, {}
|
||
|
||
# Signal 1: Base rate (overall frequency) — 20%
|
||
total = len(winners)
|
||
base = {c: winners.count(c) / total for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
|
||
# Signal 2: 1st-order Markov — 30%
|
||
last = winners[-1]
|
||
m1 = markov1.get(last, {c: 1 / 3 for c in CHAIR_LABELS})
|
||
|
||
# Signal 3: 2nd-order Markov — 25%
|
||
key2 = f"{winners[-2]}{winners[-1]}"
|
||
m2 = markov2.get(key2, {c: 1 / 3 for c in CHAIR_LABELS})
|
||
|
||
# Signal 4: Recent 50-game frequency — 15%
|
||
recent = winners[-50:] if len(winners) >= 50 else winners
|
||
recent_total = len(recent)
|
||
rec = {c: recent.count(c) / recent_total for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
|
||
# Signal 5: Streak regression — 5%
|
||
streak_chair = winners[-1]
|
||
streak_len = 0
|
||
for w in reversed(winners):
|
||
if w == streak_chair:
|
||
streak_len += 1
|
||
else:
|
||
break
|
||
# Regression to mean: longer streaks → lower probability of continuation
|
||
cont_prob = max(0.1, 1 / 3 - streak_len * 0.05)
|
||
other_prob = (1 - cont_prob) / 2
|
||
streak = {c: (cont_prob if c == streak_chair else other_prob) for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
|
||
# Signal 6: Balance / Mean Reversion — 10%
|
||
# Look at last 50 games, invert frequencies to favor under-represented chairs
|
||
window = min(50, len(winners))
|
||
recent_50 = winners[-window:]
|
||
freq = {c: recent_50.count(c) / window for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
balance = {c: max(0.01, 2 / 3 - freq[c]) for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
bal_total = sum(balance.values())
|
||
balance = {c: balance[c] / bal_total for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
|
||
weights = {"base_rate": 0.20, "markov_1": 0.25, "markov_2": 0.25, "recent_50": 0.15, "streak": 0.05, "balance": 0.10}
|
||
signals = {"base_rate": base, "markov_1": m1, "markov_2": m2, "recent_50": rec, "streak": streak, "balance": balance}
|
||
|
||
combined = {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for sig_name, weight in weights.items():
|
||
for c in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
combined[c] += weight * signals[sig_name].get(c, 1 / 3)
|
||
|
||
# Normalize
|
||
c_total = sum(combined.values())
|
||
if c_total > 0:
|
||
combined = {c: round(combined[c] / c_total, 4) for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
|
||
# Round signal values for output
|
||
signal_detail = {}
|
||
for sig_name, sig_vals in signals.items():
|
||
signal_detail[sig_name] = {
|
||
"weight": weights[sig_name],
|
||
"probs": {c: round(sig_vals.get(c, 0), 4) for c in CHAIR_LABELS},
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
return combined, signal_detail
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _card_value_distribution(cards_data):
|
||
"""Count of each card value (A–K) per chair."""
|
||
value_names = ["A", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "10", "J", "Q", "K"]
|
||
dist = {c: {v: 0 for v in value_names} for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for cards_json_str, _ in cards_data:
|
||
try:
|
||
infos = json.loads(cards_json_str)
|
||
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
|
||
continue
|
||
for p in infos:
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(p.get("country"), None)
|
||
if chair not in dist:
|
||
continue
|
||
for card in p.get("cards", []):
|
||
val = config.VALUES.get(card.get("cardValue"), None)
|
||
if val and val in dist[chair]:
|
||
dist[chair][val] += 1
|
||
return {"labels": value_names, "chairs": dist}
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _face_card_frequency(cards_data):
|
||
"""Percentage of face cards (J, Q, K, A) per chair."""
|
||
face_vals = {"J", "Q", "K", "A"}
|
||
face_counts = {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
total_counts = {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for cards_json_str, _ in cards_data:
|
||
try:
|
||
infos = json.loads(cards_json_str)
|
||
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
|
||
continue
|
||
for p in infos:
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(p.get("country"), None)
|
||
if chair not in face_counts:
|
||
continue
|
||
for card in p.get("cards", []):
|
||
val = config.VALUES.get(card.get("cardValue"), None)
|
||
if val:
|
||
total_counts[chair] += 1
|
||
if val in face_vals:
|
||
face_counts[chair] += 1
|
||
result = {}
|
||
for c in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
pct = round(face_counts[c] / total_counts[c] * 100, 2) if total_counts[c] else 0
|
||
result[c] = {"face_cards": face_counts[c], "total_cards": total_counts[c], "pct": pct}
|
||
return result
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _suit_distribution(cards_data):
|
||
"""Suit counts per chair."""
|
||
suit_names = ["\u2660", "\u2665", "\u2663", "\u2666"]
|
||
dist = {c: {s: 0 for s in suit_names} for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
for cards_json_str, _ in cards_data:
|
||
try:
|
||
infos = json.loads(cards_json_str)
|
||
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
|
||
continue
|
||
for p in infos:
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(p.get("country"), None)
|
||
if chair not in dist:
|
||
continue
|
||
for card in p.get("cards", []):
|
||
suit = config.SUITS.get(card.get("cardColor"), None)
|
||
if suit and suit in dist[chair]:
|
||
dist[chair][suit] += 1
|
||
return {"labels": suit_names, "chairs": dist}
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _winning_card_patterns(cards_data):
|
||
"""Top 20 individual cards appearing in winning hands."""
|
||
card_counts = {}
|
||
for cards_json_str, winner in cards_data:
|
||
try:
|
||
infos = json.loads(cards_json_str)
|
||
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
|
||
continue
|
||
for p in infos:
|
||
chair = config.CHAIRS.get(p.get("country"), None)
|
||
if chair is None:
|
||
continue
|
||
# Check if this chair won: winner is stored as chair_id (1=C, 2=B, 3=A)
|
||
if config.CHAIRS.get(winner) != chair:
|
||
continue
|
||
for card in p.get("cards", []):
|
||
val = config.VALUES.get(card.get("cardValue"), None)
|
||
suit = config.SUITS.get(card.get("cardColor"), None)
|
||
if val and suit:
|
||
label = f"{val}{suit}"
|
||
card_counts[label] = card_counts.get(label, 0) + 1
|
||
sorted_cards = sorted(card_counts.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)[:20]
|
||
return [{"card": c, "count": n} for c, n in sorted_cards]
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _backtest_theories(winners):
|
||
"""Backtest all prediction theories on historical data."""
|
||
warmup = 30
|
||
if len(winners) <= warmup:
|
||
return {"error": "Not enough data for backtesting"}
|
||
|
||
theories = ["base_rate", "markov_1", "markov_2", "recent_50", "streak", "balance", "combined"]
|
||
full_hits = {t: 0 for t in theories}
|
||
semi_hits = {t: 0 for t in theories}
|
||
total_tested = 0
|
||
rolling = {t: [] for t in theories} # rolling accuracy over last 200
|
||
|
||
for i in range(warmup, len(winners)):
|
||
history = winners[:i]
|
||
actual = winners[i]
|
||
total_tested += 1
|
||
|
||
total_h = len(history)
|
||
# Base rate
|
||
base = {c: history.count(c) / total_h for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
base_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: base[c], reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
# Markov-1
|
||
m1, _ = _markov_matrix_1(history)
|
||
last = history[-1]
|
||
m1_probs = m1.get(last, {c: 1 / 3 for c in CHAIR_LABELS})
|
||
m1_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: m1_probs.get(c, 0), reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
# Markov-2
|
||
m2, _ = _markov_matrix_2(history)
|
||
key2 = f"{history[-2]}{history[-1]}"
|
||
m2_probs = m2.get(key2, {c: 1 / 3 for c in CHAIR_LABELS})
|
||
m2_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: m2_probs.get(c, 0), reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
# Recent-50
|
||
recent = history[-50:] if len(history) >= 50 else history
|
||
rec = {c: recent.count(c) / len(recent) for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
rec_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: rec[c], reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
# Streak
|
||
streak_chair = history[-1]
|
||
streak_len = 0
|
||
for w in reversed(history):
|
||
if w == streak_chair:
|
||
streak_len += 1
|
||
else:
|
||
break
|
||
cont_prob = max(0.1, 1 / 3 - streak_len * 0.05)
|
||
other_prob = (1 - cont_prob) / 2
|
||
streak_probs = {c: (cont_prob if c == streak_chair else other_prob) for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
streak_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: streak_probs[c], reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
# Balance / Mean Reversion
|
||
bal_window = min(50, len(history))
|
||
bal_recent = history[-bal_window:]
|
||
bal_freq = {c: bal_recent.count(c) / bal_window for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
bal_probs = {c: max(0.01, 2 / 3 - bal_freq[c]) for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
bal_t = sum(bal_probs.values())
|
||
bal_probs = {c: bal_probs[c] / bal_t for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
bal_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: bal_probs[c], reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
# Combined Bayesian
|
||
combined = {c: 0 for c in CHAIR_LABELS}
|
||
weights = {"base_rate": 0.20, "markov_1": 0.25, "markov_2": 0.25, "recent_50": 0.15, "streak": 0.05, "balance": 0.10}
|
||
signals = {"base_rate": base, "markov_1": m1_probs, "markov_2": m2_probs, "recent_50": rec, "streak": streak_probs, "balance": bal_probs}
|
||
for sig_name, weight in weights.items():
|
||
for c in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
combined[c] += weight * signals[sig_name].get(c, 1 / 3)
|
||
combined_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: combined[c], reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
ranked = {
|
||
"base_rate": base_ranked, "markov_1": m1_ranked, "markov_2": m2_ranked,
|
||
"recent_50": rec_ranked, "streak": streak_ranked, "balance": bal_ranked,
|
||
"combined": combined_ranked,
|
||
}
|
||
for t in theories:
|
||
pick = ranked[t][0]
|
||
second = ranked[t][1]
|
||
if pick == actual:
|
||
full_hits[t] += 1
|
||
rolling[t].append(1.0)
|
||
elif second == actual:
|
||
semi_hits[t] += 1
|
||
rolling[t].append(0.5)
|
||
else:
|
||
rolling[t].append(0.0)
|
||
|
||
accuracy = {
|
||
t: round((full_hits[t] + semi_hits[t] * 0.5) / total_tested * 100, 2) if total_tested else 0
|
||
for t in theories
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
# Rolling accuracy over last 200 games
|
||
window = 200
|
||
rolling_accuracy = {t: [] for t in theories}
|
||
for t in theories:
|
||
data = rolling[t]
|
||
for j in range(len(data)):
|
||
start = max(0, j - window + 1)
|
||
chunk = data[start:j + 1]
|
||
rolling_accuracy[t].append(round(sum(chunk) / len(chunk) * 100, 2))
|
||
# Only keep last 200 points for the chart
|
||
for t in theories:
|
||
rolling_accuracy[t] = rolling_accuracy[t][-window:]
|
||
|
||
return {
|
||
"total_tested": total_tested,
|
||
"accuracy": accuracy,
|
||
"full_hits": {t: full_hits[t] for t in theories},
|
||
"semi_hits": {t: semi_hits[t] for t in theories},
|
||
"rolling_accuracy": rolling_accuracy,
|
||
"random_baseline": 33.33,
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _compute_whale_public_picks(client, game_nos):
|
||
"""Compute whale pick and public pick for a list of game_nos from bets data.
|
||
|
||
Returns {game_no: {whale_pick, public_pick, whale_count, public_count, bettor_counts}}.
|
||
"""
|
||
if not game_nos:
|
||
return {}
|
||
game_nos_csv = ",".join(str(g) for g in game_nos)
|
||
result = client.query(
|
||
f"SELECT game_no, user_id, chair, sum(bet_amount) AS total_user_bet "
|
||
f"FROM bets WHERE game_no IN ({game_nos_csv}) "
|
||
f"GROUP BY game_no, user_id, chair"
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
# Collect per-game, per-user, per-chair totals
|
||
# game_data[game_no][user_id][chair] = amount
|
||
game_data = {}
|
||
for row in result.result_rows:
|
||
gno, uid, chair_id, amount = row[0], row[1], row[2], row[3]
|
||
if gno not in game_data:
|
||
game_data[gno] = {}
|
||
if uid not in game_data[gno]:
|
||
game_data[gno][uid] = {}
|
||
chair_name = config.CHAIRS.get(chair_id, "?")
|
||
if chair_name in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
game_data[gno][uid][chair_name] = game_data[gno][uid].get(chair_name, 0) + amount
|
||
|
||
picks = {}
|
||
for gno in game_nos:
|
||
users = game_data.get(gno, {})
|
||
if not users:
|
||
picks[gno] = {"whale_pick": None, "whale_second_pick": None,
|
||
"public_pick": None, "public_second_pick": None,
|
||
"whale_count": 0, "public_count": 0,
|
||
"bettor_counts": {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0}}
|
||
continue
|
||
|
||
# Rank users by total bet across all chairs
|
||
user_totals = []
|
||
for uid, chairs in users.items():
|
||
user_totals.append((uid, sum(chairs.values())))
|
||
user_totals.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
|
||
|
||
whale_uids = set(uid for uid, _ in user_totals[:5])
|
||
pub_uids = set(uid for uid, _ in user_totals[5:])
|
||
|
||
# Sum whale money per chair
|
||
whale_money = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0}
|
||
for uid in whale_uids:
|
||
for c in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
whale_money[c] += users[uid].get(c, 0)
|
||
whale_total = sum(whale_money.values())
|
||
if whale_total > 0:
|
||
whale_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: whale_money[c], reverse=True)
|
||
whale_pick = whale_ranked[0]
|
||
whale_second_pick = whale_ranked[1]
|
||
else:
|
||
whale_pick = None
|
||
whale_second_pick = None
|
||
|
||
# Sum public money per chair
|
||
pub_money = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0}
|
||
for uid in pub_uids:
|
||
for c in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
pub_money[c] += users[uid].get(c, 0)
|
||
pub_total = sum(pub_money.values())
|
||
total_bettors = len(user_totals)
|
||
if pub_total > 0 and total_bettors > 5:
|
||
pub_ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: pub_money[c], reverse=True)
|
||
public_pick = pub_ranked[0]
|
||
public_second_pick = pub_ranked[1]
|
||
else:
|
||
public_pick = None
|
||
public_second_pick = None
|
||
|
||
# Count bettors per chair
|
||
bettor_counts = {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0}
|
||
for uid, chairs in users.items():
|
||
for c in CHAIR_LABELS:
|
||
if chairs.get(c, 0) > 0:
|
||
bettor_counts[c] += 1
|
||
|
||
picks[gno] = {
|
||
"whale_pick": whale_pick,
|
||
"whale_second_pick": whale_second_pick,
|
||
"public_pick": public_pick,
|
||
"public_second_pick": public_second_pick,
|
||
"whale_count": len(whale_uids),
|
||
"public_count": len(pub_uids),
|
||
"bettor_counts": bettor_counts,
|
||
}
|
||
return picks
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _last_n_predictions(winners, n=20):
|
||
"""Get detailed prediction vs actual for the last N games."""
|
||
warmup = 30
|
||
if len(winners) <= warmup:
|
||
return []
|
||
start = max(warmup, len(winners) - n)
|
||
results = []
|
||
for i in range(start, len(winners)):
|
||
history = winners[:i]
|
||
actual = winners[i]
|
||
m1, _ = _markov_matrix_1(history)
|
||
m2, _ = _markov_matrix_2(history)
|
||
pred, _ = _bayesian_prediction(history, m1, m2)
|
||
ranked = sorted(CHAIR_LABELS, key=lambda c: pred[c], reverse=True)
|
||
predicted = ranked[0]
|
||
second_predicted = ranked[1]
|
||
results.append({
|
||
"index": i,
|
||
"predicted": predicted,
|
||
"second_predicted": second_predicted,
|
||
"actual": actual,
|
||
"correct": predicted == actual,
|
||
"semi_correct": predicted != actual and second_predicted == actual,
|
||
"probs": {c: round(pred[c], 4) for c in CHAIR_LABELS},
|
||
})
|
||
return results
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_prediction_analysis() -> dict:
|
||
"""Run all prediction/game-theory analysis and return results."""
|
||
client = get_client()
|
||
|
||
# Query 1: Full winner sequence with game numbers
|
||
result = client.query("SELECT game_no, winner FROM games ORDER BY game_no ASC")
|
||
game_nos = [r[0] for r in result.result_rows if config.CHAIRS.get(r[1], "?") in CHAIR_LABELS]
|
||
winners = [config.CHAIRS.get(r[1], "?") for r in result.result_rows]
|
||
winners = [w for w in winners if w in CHAIR_LABELS] # filter unknowns
|
||
|
||
# Query 2: Card data for last 500 games
|
||
cards_result = client.query(
|
||
"SELECT cards_json, winner FROM games WHERE cards_json != '' ORDER BY game_no DESC LIMIT 500"
|
||
)
|
||
cards_data = [(r[0], r[1]) for r in cards_result.result_rows]
|
||
|
||
# Markov matrices
|
||
markov1, markov1_counts = _markov_matrix_1(winners)
|
||
markov2, markov2_counts = _markov_matrix_2(winners)
|
||
|
||
# Autocorrelation
|
||
autocorrelation = _autocorrelation(winners)
|
||
|
||
# Chi-squared test
|
||
chi_squared = _chi_squared_test(winners)
|
||
|
||
# Runs test
|
||
runs_test = _runs_test(winners)
|
||
|
||
# Bayesian prediction
|
||
prediction, signals = _bayesian_prediction(winners, markov1, markov2)
|
||
|
||
# Backtesting
|
||
backtest = _backtest_theories(winners)
|
||
|
||
# Last 50 prediction vs actual
|
||
last_50_raw = _last_n_predictions(winners, 50)
|
||
# Attach game_nos to last_50
|
||
for entry in last_50_raw:
|
||
idx = entry["index"]
|
||
entry["game_no"] = game_nos[idx] if idx < len(game_nos) else 0
|
||
|
||
# Merge whale/public picks into last_50
|
||
last_50_game_nos = [e["game_no"] for e in last_50_raw if e.get("game_no")]
|
||
wp_data = _compute_whale_public_picks(client, last_50_game_nos)
|
||
for entry in last_50_raw:
|
||
gno = entry.get("game_no", 0)
|
||
wp = wp_data.get(gno, {})
|
||
entry["whale_pick"] = wp.get("whale_pick")
|
||
entry["whale_second_pick"] = wp.get("whale_second_pick")
|
||
entry["public_pick"] = wp.get("public_pick")
|
||
entry["public_second_pick"] = wp.get("public_second_pick")
|
||
entry["bettor_counts"] = wp.get("bettor_counts", {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0})
|
||
actual = entry["actual"]
|
||
entry["whale_hit"] = (wp.get("whale_pick") == actual) if wp.get("whale_pick") else None
|
||
entry["whale_semi"] = (not entry["whale_hit"] and wp.get("whale_second_pick") == actual) if wp.get("whale_pick") else None
|
||
entry["public_hit"] = (wp.get("public_pick") == actual) if wp.get("public_pick") else None
|
||
entry["public_semi"] = (not entry["public_hit"] and wp.get("public_second_pick") == actual) if wp.get("public_pick") else None
|
||
|
||
# Card analysis
|
||
card_values = _card_value_distribution(cards_data)
|
||
face_cards = _face_card_frequency(cards_data)
|
||
suits = _suit_distribution(cards_data)
|
||
winning_cards = _winning_card_patterns(cards_data)
|
||
|
||
# Bet rank analysis — how often the winning chair had high/mid/low bet
|
||
rank_result = client.query("""
|
||
SELECT
|
||
countIf(winner_bet >= greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS high,
|
||
countIf(winner_bet > least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)
|
||
AND winner_bet < greatest(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS mid,
|
||
countIf(winner_bet <= least(bet_a, bet_b, bet_c)) AS low
|
||
FROM (
|
||
SELECT bet_a, bet_b, bet_c,
|
||
multiIf(winner = 3, bet_a, winner = 2, bet_b, bet_c) AS winner_bet
|
||
FROM games WHERE bet_a + bet_b + bet_c > 0
|
||
)
|
||
""")
|
||
bet_rank = {"high": 0, "mid": 0, "low": 0}
|
||
if rank_result.result_rows:
|
||
r = rank_result.result_rows[0]
|
||
bet_rank = {"high": r[0], "mid": r[1], "low": r[2]}
|
||
|
||
return {
|
||
"total_games": len(winners),
|
||
"last_winners": winners[-10:] if len(winners) >= 10 else winners,
|
||
"last_20_predictions": last_50_raw,
|
||
"prediction": prediction,
|
||
"signals": signals,
|
||
"markov1": {"matrix": markov1, "counts": {k: dict(v) for k, v in markov1_counts.items()}},
|
||
"markov2": {"matrix": markov2, "counts": {k: dict(v) for k, v in markov2_counts.items()}},
|
||
"autocorrelation": autocorrelation,
|
||
"chi_squared": chi_squared,
|
||
"runs_test": runs_test,
|
||
"backtest": backtest,
|
||
"bet_rank": bet_rank,
|
||
"card_values": card_values,
|
||
"face_cards": face_cards,
|
||
"suits": suits,
|
||
"winning_cards": winning_cards,
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
|
||
@_with_lock
|
||
def get_prediction_history(limit: int = 100) -> dict:
|
||
"""Get prediction history with whale/public picks and accuracy summary."""
|
||
client = get_client()
|
||
|
||
# Full winner sequence with game numbers
|
||
result = client.query("SELECT game_no, winner FROM games ORDER BY game_no ASC")
|
||
game_nos = [r[0] for r in result.result_rows if config.CHAIRS.get(r[1], "?") in CHAIR_LABELS]
|
||
winners = [config.CHAIRS.get(r[1], "?") for r in result.result_rows]
|
||
winners = [w for w in winners if w in CHAIR_LABELS]
|
||
|
||
# Get last N predictions
|
||
predictions = _last_n_predictions(winners, limit)
|
||
|
||
# Attach game_nos
|
||
for entry in predictions:
|
||
idx = entry["index"]
|
||
entry["game_no"] = game_nos[idx] if idx < len(game_nos) else 0
|
||
|
||
# Compute whale/public picks
|
||
pred_game_nos = [e["game_no"] for e in predictions if e.get("game_no")]
|
||
wp_data = _compute_whale_public_picks(client, pred_game_nos)
|
||
|
||
# Merge and compute accuracy
|
||
whale_hits = 0
|
||
whale_semi_hits = 0
|
||
whale_total = 0
|
||
public_hits = 0
|
||
public_semi_hits = 0
|
||
public_total = 0
|
||
model_full_hits = 0
|
||
model_semi_hits = 0
|
||
|
||
for entry in predictions:
|
||
gno = entry.get("game_no", 0)
|
||
wp = wp_data.get(gno, {})
|
||
entry["whale_pick"] = wp.get("whale_pick")
|
||
entry["whale_second_pick"] = wp.get("whale_second_pick")
|
||
entry["public_pick"] = wp.get("public_pick")
|
||
entry["public_second_pick"] = wp.get("public_second_pick")
|
||
entry["bettor_counts"] = wp.get("bettor_counts", {"A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0})
|
||
actual = entry["actual"]
|
||
entry["whale_hit"] = (wp.get("whale_pick") == actual) if wp.get("whale_pick") else None
|
||
entry["whale_semi"] = (not entry["whale_hit"] and wp.get("whale_second_pick") == actual) if wp.get("whale_pick") else None
|
||
entry["public_hit"] = (wp.get("public_pick") == actual) if wp.get("public_pick") else None
|
||
entry["public_semi"] = (not entry["public_hit"] and wp.get("public_second_pick") == actual) if wp.get("public_pick") else None
|
||
|
||
# Remove internal index from output
|
||
del entry["index"]
|
||
|
||
# Accumulate accuracy
|
||
if entry["correct"]:
|
||
model_full_hits += 1
|
||
elif entry["semi_correct"]:
|
||
model_semi_hits += 1
|
||
if entry["whale_hit"] is not None:
|
||
whale_total += 1
|
||
if entry["whale_hit"]:
|
||
whale_hits += 1
|
||
elif entry.get("whale_semi"):
|
||
whale_semi_hits += 1
|
||
if entry["public_hit"] is not None:
|
||
public_total += 1
|
||
if entry["public_hit"]:
|
||
public_hits += 1
|
||
elif entry.get("public_semi"):
|
||
public_semi_hits += 1
|
||
|
||
total_pred = len(predictions)
|
||
model_score = model_full_hits + model_semi_hits * 0.5
|
||
whale_score = whale_hits + whale_semi_hits * 0.5
|
||
public_score = public_hits + public_semi_hits * 0.5
|
||
|
||
return {
|
||
"total_games": len(winners),
|
||
"limit": limit,
|
||
"predictions": predictions,
|
||
"accuracy": {
|
||
"model": {
|
||
"hits": model_full_hits,
|
||
"semi": model_semi_hits,
|
||
"total": total_pred,
|
||
"pct": round(model_score / total_pred * 100, 1) if total_pred else 0,
|
||
},
|
||
"whale": {
|
||
"hits": whale_hits,
|
||
"semi": whale_semi_hits,
|
||
"total": whale_total,
|
||
"pct": round(whale_score / whale_total * 100, 1) if whale_total else 0,
|
||
},
|
||
"public": {
|
||
"hits": public_hits,
|
||
"semi": public_semi_hits,
|
||
"total": public_total,
|
||
"pct": round(public_score / public_total * 100, 1) if public_total else 0,
|
||
},
|
||
},
|
||
}
|